The Brexit process is apparently entering its final phase although it is still possible that the prime minister will accept a very long extension or even revoke Article 50 itself. Nothing can be taken for granted. My own wish is that we leave with no deal since as Theresa May once said—though she almost certainly never believed it— no deal is better than a bad deal.
And her own deal is extremely bad. It would hand over £39 billion, which legally we do not owe, to Brussels in return for a promise somewhere down the line of some sort of free trade deal. Meanwhile we would remain inside the EU economically for all intents and purposes but without any democratic representation.
The Political Declaration, which accompanies the Withdrawal Agreement but which is not legally binding meanwhile commits us to surrendering our national defences to future EU control, as the former head of MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove, and several of our most distinguished past service chiefs have pointed out.
Some Remainers complain that the process has taken too long and that we need a second referendum. This is chicanery. The Lisbon Treaty lays down a negotiating period of two years and during that process the deplorable Mrs. May saw fit to lead a disastrous election campaign which lost her her parliamentary majority.
As a result, she has had great difficulty in controlling the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Remain majority in all the parliamentary parties and in the cabinet has gradually abandoned the promises it made to respect the referendum result.
Even the blatantly pro-Remain Speaker, John Bercow, has joined in aiding and abetting Grieve, Cooper, Letwin, Boles and others in tearing up constitutional precedent and parliamentary procedure and allowing the Commons to take control of government.
The last time this happened, in 1642, the result was civil war.
More seriously, the prime minister herself has sidelined and double-crossed her Brexiteer ministers, leading to regular resignations, while allowing rabidly federalist civil servants (Olly Robbins was President of the European Federalist Society at university) to compose key policy documents and lead negotiations.
Key cabinet allies in all this are Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, David Gauke, and Greg Clark, who are fierce Remainers and clearly want any deal other than May’s own to take us even closer to BRINO (Brexit in name only) and DINO (Democracy in name only).
The result is that the Brexit process has been long and twisted with only 29 true Brexiteers holding out for a settlement that would actually give us back control of our laws, trade, borders and money, sustained by a very self-interested DUP.
Yet these good folk—heroes in many eyes— will be blamed if May’s dreadful act of surrender is not passed and Brexit is postponed or lost.
Meanwhile the very biased media (BBC and Sky programmes are dominated by Remain politicians and commentators) ignore events in Europe, where France is suffering civil unrest; where Germany, Austria, Spain, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and the Scandinavian member states, have all witnessed the rise of the Far Right; and where the prospect of a much-predicted world recession could destroy the Eurozone economy.
Most people are unaware that since the start of this century the U.K. has experienced better growth than Germany and France (Italy has had none at all) and that despite Brexit the IMF predicts Britain will grow faster than Germany this year. Germany is about to follow Italy into recession.
We also have a rate of unemployment which is less than half that of the Eurozone. A few weeks ago The Times reported that more job opportunities would be available for British graduates this summer than ever before. We now have record employment. Whereas on the same day, Le Figaro in Paris had a headline lamenting how 3 million young French people lived without any hope of finding a job.
Remainers do not seem to understand the true significance of immigration figures. For the last five years, between 100,00 and 400,000 young Europeans have been coming here annually to find work. There would only be a case for remaining in the EU if, on the contrary, 100,00-400,00 young Brits had to emigrate to the EU every year to find work. Is this not obvious?
The truth is that given all the contingency plans now in place, leaving the EU without a deal—as a plurality of voters now confirm in opinion polls— would be our best option. We could save £39 billion, would no longer pay a £10 billion plus annual contribution to Brussels, we could abolish EU tariffs and have cheaper food, clothes and footwear, and we could get rid of tons of EU red tape.
We could certainly subsidise any industries—including farming—affected by EU tariffs and we could sign trade deals with the USA, China and many other interested countries.
But the Remain majority, which for reasons of sheer ignorance still sees EU membership as a boon—it is not only economically in decline but politically divided and in terms of defence and foreign affairs a bad joke—will do anything and everything to overturn the will of the people.
The inevitable result will be the undermining of democracy in this country and a fundamental alteration of the party system. The main parties will suffer most, the Tories most of all. Many people will give up voting. Others will never trust established parties again and give their support to new ‘populist’ ones—those without a record of lying to the people or betraying democracy.
I have just set up a new party—Prosper UK—which is democratic, moderate, centre-right and committed to regenerating the national economy, particularly outside London. Its website can be found at www.prosperuk.party and I hope you will visit it and support it.
Our future can only be secured if we ourselves decide to change it. Apathy will lead to servility to Brussels. The likely betrayal of Brexit—the desire of the largest majority in British history— can only be revenged if the same democratic majority that created Brexit repudiates the present parliamentary parties and votes for parties that will redeem the result of the referendum.
Democracy depends on it.
Alan Sked,
Leader, Prosper UK; Professor Emeritus of International History, LSE.
Twitter: @profsked
E-Mail: a.sked@lse.ac.uk
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